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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still