A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
